Tonight the Buckeyes (18-9, 8-8) take on the Iowa Hawkeyes (14-15, 4-12) in a game that is essentially a must win for Ohio State to remain confident about their NCAA Tournament chances. The Buckeyes come into the game losers of four of their last five games to slip perilously close to the tournament “bubble”.  This game is the Buckeyes’ final road game while this is one of two home games to close the season for the Hawkeyes.  Both teams are coming off losses this past Saturday, with Iowa falling to Northwestern 55-49 and Ohio State getting blown out 75-50 by Purdue.

Probable starting lineups:

Iowa:

                                                                PPG       RPG       FG%       3PT%

Jake Kelly                                            11.1        2.9          45.2        36.1       

Matt Gatens                                      11.0        3.9          44.3        42.1                       

Aaron Fuller                                       4.2          2.6          37.5        32.3

Devan Bawinkel                               4.0          1.5          32.5        33.0

Jarryd Cole                                          3.2          2.7          67.9        0

Ohio State

                                                                PPG       RPG       FG%       3PT%

PJ Hill                                                     2.7          1.3          48.8        45.5       

Evan Turner                                        16.6        7.2          50.7        45.0

Jon Diebler                                         11.2        3.3          44.5        41.4

William Buford                                  11.3        3.4          43.0        35.3

Dallas Lauderdale                             4.6          3.7          68.6        0

Keys to victory for the Buckeyes:

-Iowa starts no one over 6’7”, so Ohio State needs to pound the paint early, drawing fouls against the Iowa bigs and really take advantage of the size mismatch.

-Iowa likes to put up a lot of threes (third most in the Big 10), but they rank seventh in shooting (33.7%), so the Buckeyes need to really focus on getting a hand in the faces of the shooters while locked into the 3-2 matchup zone.

-Ohio State seems to lose every game in which they get outrebounded, especially on the defensive end. If Iowa gets a lot of second chances they will eventually start draining shots, so the Buckeyes need to buckle down and finally outrebound a team that they have a size advantage over.

-Feed the ball to Turner and allow him to penetrate and drop it into Lauderdale, Kyle Madsen, and BJ Mullens. Iowa has no one on the perimeter that can guard Turner, so unless they switch to a zone, ET should have no problem getting to the hole and either beating his man to the hoop or drawing a double team and dishing it for an easy assist.

-FOCUS. The Buckeyes’ tournament lifeline depends on this game. The NCAA Selection Committee takes a “what have you done for me lately” approach, and because the Buckeyes are on a four out of five game slide, the Bucks need the win. Winning out against Iowa and Northwestern and then not choking in the Big Ten Tournament will go a long way in sealing the Buckeyes tournament fate.

Prediction:

This will be another trudging Big 10 battle that no one seems to want to win, but the Buckeyes will finally net Thad Matta a win in Iowa City 51-45.